Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan finds his government and ailing economy caught in the Russia-Ukraine crossfire.
On the one hand, Turkey is a NATO member. It has solid ties with Kyiv and, in the run-up to Russia’s invasion, supplied Ukraine’s military with a variety of useful weapons. On Tuesday, Erdoğan not only publicly backed hypothetical NATO and EU enlargement – a red line for Russia when it comes to Ukraine – he also wondered aloud about whatever happened to Turkey’s (very) long-term bid to join the EU.
On the other hand, Erdoğan’s often bitter relations with Europe and the US have pushed him to strengthen ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russia provides Turkey with vital trade, lots of tourists, and even weapon systems that have angered NATO. Russia’s military presence in Syria likewise leaves Turkey eager to avoid unnecessary confrontation.
This week, Russia signaled that it wanted to move three warships from the Mediterranean into the Black Sea, potentially toward Ukraine’s coastline. Under a 1936 treaty, Turkey has the wartime right to refuse anyone passage through the Bosporus.